|
|
Turkmenistan Sells Gas Twice
// To Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy
Friendship of Nations
Alexey Ivchenko, chairman of the board of Naftogaz Ukrainy, announced yesterday that that he would sign an agreement with Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov on the purchase of 60 billion cu. m. of natural gas annually for 30 years. Gazprom, which has already signed an agreement with Turkmenistan for the purchase of the same volume of gas beginning in 2007, said that the new agreement with Naftogaz will not be valid without Gazprom's approval. Gazprom has express doubts about the ability of Turkmenistan to service both purchasers at its present level of production. Most likely, the Turkmen president is using the competition between the two companies to drive up prices.
Ukraine will buy 38 billion cu. m. of natural gas from Turkmenistan this year at $38 per 1000 cu. m. and 23 billion cu. m. at $50 per 1000 cu. m. By Kommersant's calculations, Naftogaz will pay $2.58 billion in total for those 61 billion cu. m. of gas. (It receives Russian gas as payment for gas transit to Europe as well.)
Naftogaz chairman Ivchenko announced yesterday that a long-term interstate agreement on the provision of Turkmen gas to Ukraine will be signed during Turkmenistani President Niyazov's visit to Kiev in October. “The document says that60 billion cu. m. of Turkmen gas will be pumped annually,” Ivchenko said. “The price has not been specified because it is a framework agreement.”
Kommersant has learned that that state Turkmenneftegaz Co. will be obliged to provide Ukraine with gas from 2006 to 2036 in a volume of 50-60 billion cu. m. per year and the form of payment will be determined in annual contracts. The agreement also envisages the possibility of forming a consortium for the construction of new gas pipelines through the territory of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine for primary export of Turkmen gas to the European Union. That issue is not specifically mentioned in the agreement, however.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko held preliminary negotiations with Niyazov on that agreement in March, but the results of those negotiations had remained unknown until now. If the agreement is signed, it will inevitably contradict the agreement reached between Russia and Turkmenistan in 2003 for the sale by Turkmenneftegaz to Gazprom of 60-70 billion cu. m. of gas in 2007, 63-73 billion cu. m. in 2008 and 70-80 billion cu. m. in 2009.
Published statistics on gas production in Turkmenistan make those plans look unrealistic. Detailed statistics on the countries gas balance are not officially made public. Russian sources claim that that the country exported 58.5 billion cu. m. in 2004 and that the level of its gas production is falling. Even if Turkmenistan's habitual declarations of rising production are true, it won't be enough to fulfill both contracts.
The 2003 Gazprom contract meant it would not longer use Turkmen gas transported through Ukraine, but would receive the gas directly, at prices closer to the European level. Neither extending the Ukrainian contract by 20 years nor a pipeline consortium to compete with it for European gas export is to Gazprom's advantage.
Gazprom spokesmen agreed yesterday that Turkmenistan could sign the contract with Naftogaz, but they expressed doubts about its fulfillment. “The gas pipeline from Central Asia to the center can't carry more than 50 billion cu. m. through Uzbekistan,” they said unofficially at Gazprom yesterday. “And sine Gazprom becomes the sole operator for deliveries of Central Asian gas on January 1, without its permission such an agreement is simply invalid.”
Industry experts are of the opinion that, by signing two competing agreements, Turkmenistan is counting on doing business with the party that pays more, thus creating a feud between its two key buyers. If 60 billion cu. m. of gas are bought for $80 per 1000 cu. m., as the Turkmen was insisting at the beginning of the year, Ukraine will pay $4.8 billion ($2.22 billion more than it is paying now). If Turkmenbashi insists on that price from Gazprom as well, it will pay about $2 billion more than it expected to. It would make at least some of that money back, however, by reselling to Ukraine with a 2-percent markup.
The press service of the Embassy of Turkmenistani told Kommersant yesterday that President Niyazov's visit to Kiev would take place in December, not October.
by
Natalia Grib; Oleg Gavrish, Kiev
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 07, 2005
|
|
|
