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Moscow Signs On to German Plan
// After Abkhazia rejects it
Russia has given high marks to the plan for a Georgian-Abkhazian settlement proposed by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and called it “conceptually absolutely correct.” That practical support from Moscow for Germany’s intermediary efforts comes immediately after the plan was rejected by Abkhazia and was a sensational surprise. Moscow has reacted jealously to all similar attempts coming from the West. In reality, it seems that Moscow simply did not want to be the one to sound the death knell for the plan, which has little chance of success in any case.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke highly of the “Steinmeier plan” late Friday evening after completing negotiations with the German Foreign Minister at Kharchevnya restaurant in the elite settlement of Zhukovka outside Moscow. Steinmeier met with Lavrov after stops in Tbilisi and Sukhumi, where he advanced his peace plan that had been worked out with the UN general secretary’s group of friends for Georgia. Its contents have not been officially released, but several details from the document were leaked to the German media. The first stage of the Steinmeier plan was the signing of an agreement between Georgia and Abkhazia on the nonuse of force and the beginning of the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia. The second was the reconstruction of the unrecognized republic using the funds of donor countries. Only during the third stage would the status of Abkhazia be decided.
Russia considers the plan “conceptually absolutely correct,” Lavrov stated. “The plan encompasses all aspects of the problem, including the complex question of the return of the refugees and the socio-economic rehabilitation of the conflict zone. But it is important that it being with the proposal that the sides sign an agreement on the nonuse of force.” Then the Russian minister proposed that the plan be used as the basis for a “road map” for Georgian-Abkhazian settlement, so that Tbilisi and Sukhumi “could start direct negotiations as soon as possible” on peace.
The overt support of the Russian minister for the plan was unexpected. Moscow has been extremely jealous of any outside attempt (especially from the West) to become an intermediary in a Georgian-Abkhazian or Georgian-South Ossetian settlement. The most recent confirmation of that is the rejection by authorities in Tskhinvali last Saturday of an invitation to the negotiating table from EU special representative Peter Semneby, who suggested a Georgian-Ossetian meeting in Brussels on July 22. Kommersant has obtained the information that the Tskhinvali’s response was coordinated with Moscow. Moreover, the praise from the lips of Lavrov for the Germany plan came only hours after Abkhazia unambiguously rejected it. So, it seems, Moscow did not coordinate its actions with its protégé, which is an extremely rare event.
Tbilisi, unsurprisingly, was openly pleased with the results of the negotiations in Moscow. Shota Malashkhia, chairman of the Georgian parliamentary commission on restoring territorial integrity, told Kommersant that “the results of Steinmeier’s visit show how effective Western pressure on Russia is.” Moscow had its reasons for taking the position it did, however. First, Moscow was informed of Steinmeier’s mission in advance. Two days before he began his tour, Steinmeier spoke with Lavrov by telephone. On the same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, who is in charge of relations with Georgia, received Hans Dieter Lukas, German Foreign Ministry special representative for Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, after he his visits to Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Kommersant has obtained information that, during these contacts, the German side asked Moscow to support the Steinmeier plan or at least not to reject it immediately.
Second, there are elements of the plan that really do suit Moscow. “The plan includes an agreement on the nonuse of force. Everything else can be discussed,” a Russian diplomat commented.
Third, the Steinmeier plan, at least with stipulations (the addition of the demand that Russian former president Vladimir Putin’s order on direct Russian support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the addition of a clause on the future of Russian peacekeeping in the region), has been supported by Georgia. Because of that, Georgia would receive political dividends, if Russia rejected it as firmly as Abkhazia.
Finally, Russia considers the withdrawal of Georgian divisions from Kodori Gorge an essential condition for peace between Sukhumi and Tbilisi (in addition to the conclusion of an agreement on the nonuse of force), citing the 1994 agreement that was included in UN Security Council documents. But, in his conversation with Steinmeier in Zhukovka, Lavrov open admitted that the withdrawal of Georgian troops from Kodori Gorge is “extremely unlikely” in the near future. Therefore, negotiations on the Steinmeier plan could reach a dead end at any moment. And that could be blamed on Tbilisi.
Georgia Sounds the Alarm
Georgia has accused Russia of amassing forces in Abkhazia and along the strategic passes of the main ridge of the Caucasus. A Georgian Defense Ministry spokesman told Kommersant that Russian troops have occupied the Mamison (Abkhazia) and Roki (South Ossetia) Passes and are in full battle readiness “one advance from Sukhumi in the first case and from Tbilisi in the second.” A representative of the supreme council of the Abkhazian Autonomous Republic (a sort of Abkhazian government in exile) Timur Mzhavia told Kommersant that “according to the information of our sources in Abkhazia, Russian forces are amassed in the area of Kodori Gorge. They are digging trenches and amassing live forces and equipment.” The same information has appeared in the Georgian media, which report that heavy military hardware has been brought into Abkhazia from Russia and dispatched in the direction of Kodori Gorge.
Abkhazian authorities deny those reports. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba told Kommersant that “the Georgian side has mistaken a scheduled rotation of Russia’s peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone for the introduction of new divisions. If additional divisions were introduced in Abkhazia above the agreed-upon quota, I would know about it.”
Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of July 21, 2008
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