Moscow and Tbilisi Trade Exercises
Russia begins Caucasus 2008, large-scale military exercises, today, with 8000 soldiers and 700 pieces of military hardware working out a scenario of military action in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The exercises are being held in the areas of the strategically important Roki and Mamison Passes, which connect South Ossetia to Russia. The maneuvers coincide with the Georgian-American Immediate Response 2008 military exercises. That may mean that Russia and Georgia are preparing for further tensions in their relations.
The dislocation of forces to the zone of the exercises, which will take place in 11 subjects of the federation in the Southern Federal District, began Tuesday. Besides the forces of the North Caucasus Military District, troops from the Pskov and Novgorod large units and the storm troopers of the Volgograd regiment, which is now located in Krasnodar territory along the railroad line, will take part in the exercises. There will be a total of about 8000 soldiers and 700 pieces of military hardware and more than 30 airplanes and helicopters. The forces arrived in the exercise zone yesterday and the main part of the exercises will begin today.
Aide to the main commander of the Russian infantry forces Igor Konashenkov told Kommersant that the participants in the exercises will solve antiterrorism problems. However, he added, “considering that the situation in the zones of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and Georgian-Ossetian conflict have become much more tense in recent times, several military units will develop a solution to peacekeeping tasks as problems.” The military acknowledges that the exercises will affect areas that are strategically important for controlling the situation in the conflict zones. Konashenko told Kommersant that exercises will be held at an altitude of more than 2500 meters in the area of Roki and Mamison Passes. Special forces units and mountain brigades will take part in those exercises.
The large-scale Russian exercises near Abkhazia and South Ossetia coincide with the Immediate Response 2008 Georgian-American exercises. About 1000 American and 600 Georgian soldiers are taking part in them. The Georgian Defense Ministry assured Kommersant that they are scheduled exercises that are not in any way connected with the mounting tension in the conflict zone. A high-placed source in the Georgian government said that Tbilisi was paying close attention to the Russian maneuvers, which they consider “a demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use force.”
Europe has activated its diplomacy as military passions heat up. Germany is trying to play the role of intermediary. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will arrive in Georgia today to meet with Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili and President Mikheil Saakashvili. On Friday, he will visit Sukhumi and hold talks with Abkhazian President Sergey Bagapsh. Then he will pay a short visit to Batumi and fly to Moscow.
Russia is well informed of the diplomatic maneuvers. On Tuesday, Steinmeier spoke by telephone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. On the same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, who is in charge of relations with Georgia, received German special envoy for Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia Hans Dieter Lucas, who was coming from Tbilisi and Sukhumi.
Kommersant has obtained information that Steinmeier intends to advance a plan for a peaceful settlement developed by the Group of Friends of the UN general secretary for Georgia. The first stage of the “Steinmeier plan” will include the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia and a guarantee of their safety. The second stage will be the economic rehabilitation of the conflict zone (with active financial support from the West), and only in the third stage will Abkhazia’s political status be discussed.
Both sides practically rejected the plan before discussing it. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba told Kommersant that “that plan doesn’t really suit us.” Authorities in the unrecognized republic have agreed to discuss it only after Georgian forces are withdrawn from the Kodori Gorge. Georgian Minister of State for Reintegration Timur Yakobashvili told Kommersant that much in the Steinmeier plan does not suit Tbilisi either. “We link the question of safety with the presence of Russian forces in Abkhazia. In the document, a time limit for the return of the refugees should be specified and, importantly, who will guarantee their safety.” In the opinion of independent expert Nika Imnaishvili, “The Steinmeier plan has no chance of success.” “Georgia does not believe in an agreement without the introduction of international peacekeeping forces; Russia will not allow that,” he told Kommersant. “In short, it is an absolutely hopeless dead end.”
Alexander Gabuev; Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi
All the Article in Russian as of July 17, 2008
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