Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev (R) and former security chief Felix Kulov confer during Bakiev's campaign appearance at Balykchi, some 200 kilometers east of Bishkek, July 2005.
Photo: AFP
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Kurmanbek Bakiev Put into Questioning
// Kyrgyz president is ready to check his legitimacy by means of referendum
Kyrgyzstan’s authorities agreed on Wednesday to make the so far biggest concession to their opponents. Five ministers were dismissed from office, and their posts were offered to the opposition for forming a coalition government. However, the opposition declined the offer and demanded the resignation of President Kurmanbek Bakiev. In response, the president promised to check his legitimacy by means of referendum. The opposition’s protest rally is scheduled for April 11. It might either lead to a peaceful change of power in Kyrgyzstan, or cause a new revolution.
President’s Game
Kyrgyz Prime Minister Azim Isabekov announced on Wednesday the resignation of five ministers, First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov among them. Isabekov explained this serious reshuffle: “It is a step towards forming a coalition government. We want the public, unions, movements to nominate their candidates, and we are ready to consider them.”
Isabekov made it clear the initiative for renewing political power is coming directly from President Bakiev. “On March 23, Kyrgyz president said he is ready for reforms. We are prepared to accept the opposition members, and we agree to work together with them,” assured the prime minister.
Thus, one of the key demands of the opposition, -- to form a coalition government, was satisfied, continuing the two-week streak of concessions.
Kurmanbek Bakiev dismissed Security Council Secretary Osmonali Guronov in mid-March. Guronov spent less than three months in that position. Five days later, the president fired Prosecutor General Kambaraly Kongantiev who was one of Bakiev’s closest associates. Several days ago, Bakiev made one more step towards the opposition by revoking his veto on the law “About public television” passed by the parliament last year. And now the president agreed to a coalition government.
Bakiev’s concessions to the opposition are definitely a least-evil solution. The purpose is to gain time so as to seize the initiative from the opponents. It is mainly an attempt to split the opposition which is becoming stronger and stronger after Ex-Prime Minister Felix Kulov joined it.
The yesterday’s generous offer to the opposition followed right after it was announced about the formation of a new opposition party, the United Kyrgyzstan. It was created by several well-known Kyrgyz politicians, -- Rosa Otunbaeva, Azimbek Beknazarov, Almaz Atambaev, Edil Baisalov, and Dooronbek Sadyrbaev. They have recently left the For Reforms opposition movement, which actually split into supporters of radical and of moderate measures. First joined Felix Kulov’s united front, For Kyrgyzstan’s Decent Future. Second decided to create their own party.
One of the United Kyrgyzstan’s leaders, the parliament’s deputy Azimbek Beknazarov said on Wednesday that his party is for “the constitutional reform and for forming a coalition government”. “We believe that the dialogue between authorities and the opposition is still possible. We have not yet decided whether we will participate in the termless protest rallies scheduled for April 11 in Bishkek,” said another leader of the party.
Apparently, Bakiev staked on cooperating with that part of the opposition when he suggested creating a coalition government. However, it turned out that he had made an error.
Opposition’s Game
The initiative of Kyrgyz authorities, apparently aimed at weakening the opposition, actually led to tougher demands from the latter. The opposition has not split further, despite expectations.
Felix Kulov’s united front, For Kyrgyzstan’s Decent Future, declined the president’s offer right away. Head of the front’s staff Omurbek Suvanaliev said on Wednesday that a coalition government can be formed only if “President Bakiev signs a decree on premature presidential elections, and if the coalition government functions for holding honest and transparent elections”. “We did not ask the president to reshuffle the government. All that is just political games. The united front demands early presidential election,” Suvanaliev declared the front’s key demand. Felix Kulov’s supporters refused even to discuss the possibility of joining the government with the president.
Their reaction was rather predictable, while the response of the opposition’s moderate wing was definitely unexpected for Kyrgyz authorities. On behalf of the United Kyrgyzstan leaders, Azimbek Beknazarov responded to Bakiev: “We demand that the president do more than just half-measures. The entire current cabinet of ministers should be dismissed. Representatives of no less than ten political parties should join the coalition government. We are not satisfied with the partial resignation of some ministers. The United Kyrgyzstan will not participate in the distribution of the new minister positions.”
When it became clear that no one in the opposition appreciated the president’s sacrifice, Bakiev played back. He urgently summoned the government to announce that he does not accept the resignation of five ministers. Calling the opposition’s demand for premature presidential election “inappropriate”, Bakiev said he is ready to confirm the legitimacy of his powers by means of referendum. “But only after the SCO summit is over,” Bakiev made a reservation. The summit will take place in Bishkek on August 16, thus the president intends to hold the referendum no earlier than in autumn 2007.
It is unlikely the opposition will agree to that. Meanwhile, the president has practically run out of the possibility for maneuver. He will have to either surrender the entire government to the moderate opposition, or prepare for resisting its united forces.
Moscow’s Game
The Kyrgyz opposition gains confidence from realizing the initiative is in its hands, while the president’s team is in dismay. “High-placed officials are looking for any chance to pay respect to Felix Kulov,” said a source close to the united front.
The opposition believes the presidential camp’s being in dismay is proved by Bakiev’s decision to revoke the resignation of five ministers. “It is hard to believe that it was the prime minister who initiated the resignations. It is clear that the president is behind that. These are the gestures of despair and the attempts to somehow settle the situation which is becoming more and more uncontrollable,” said Ex-Interior Minister Muratbek Imanaliev.
The opposition lays hopes on Russia as well. In early March, Bakiev called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to express concern about Felix Kulov’s visit to Moscow. Putin did not develop the subject, making it clear he is out of the swim. Meanwhile, Kulov gathered a press conference upon returning from Moscow, and said, as if by the way, that he had recently met with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov. “The meeting went in a friendly atmosphere, and I am very satisfied with its results,” he said vaguely.
Sources in the Kyrgyz opposition say: “Naturally, Moscow will not openly support Kulov now. However, it decided to establish relations with him just in case. If Bakiev’s regime shatters, Russia will not support it much, like it was two years ago with Askar Akaev.”
The united Kyrgyz opposition headed by Kulov has already declared its intention to take over the country, even naming the precise date for it to happen, April 11. That is the date for which the beginning of the opposition’s termless protest rally is scheduled. If Bakiev satisfies the opposition’s key demand, the change of power in the country will happen peacefully. If he does not, the country will undergo another ‘tulip revolution’.
Gennady Sysoev; Bek Orozaliev, Bishkek
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 29, 2007
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