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Politics Are a Guarantee
// The price of the question
All the disagreements over the Russian-Serbian energy agreement are formally purely economic in nature. What is the real value of NIS, Serbia’s largest oil company, and how much should Gazprom invest in its restructuring? Where will the branch of South Stream go and what will its capacity be? When and in what volume will the reservoir at Banatski Dvor be reconstructed? Those are only the biggest questions the Russian and Serbian governments have been arguing about for several years already. Besides them, there are dozens more, maybe hundreds more, points that could be subject to ongoing discussion.
In reality, the Russian-Serbian energy deal is first and foremost a political agreement. For both sides.
For Russia, the economic element of its strategy in the Balkans is key. The close economic and political relations between Moscow and the countries of the region are obvious. The tendency is simple. The Balkan countries that create a favorable climate for Russian investment have close political ties with Moscow. And that is regardless of the European-Atlantic ambitions. Slovenia, for example, has excellent relations with Russia, even though it has been a NATO member for years. Russia’s support for Montenegrin independence was largely due to the fact that the Montenegrin leadership opened the doors wide to Russian investment.
Relations between Russia and Serbia have taken on the nature of a strategic partnership only in the last few years – since Belgrade has started to look differently at the approach of Russian investors. Without that, Moscow’s support in Serbia’s fight for Kosovo would probably have been less resolute.
They understand this in Serbia, and therefore the energy agreement also has political overtones for Belgrade. In the fight for Kosovo, Russia was almost Serbia’s only ally. Although it was not possible to prevent Kosovo from declaring independence (that was simply unrealistic), Russia support helped Belgrade greatly in saving face. Belgrade was able to call the legitimacy of Kosovan independence into question in a UN court and the location of a UN mission there now is taking place according to Belgrade’s design.
It is unsurprising that Russia remains a priority for Serbia, in spite of the European-Atlantic plans of its current leadership. It should not be forgotten that a significant portion of the Serbs voted as always for the radicals and nationalists, who often mention “Mother Russia.” Therefore, the only optimal position for Belgrade is to have good relations with the West and with Russia.
President Tadic, who took an active hand in the gas negotiations with Russia, seems to have a good understanding of that. And if the energy agreement between Russia and Serbia is political, it cannot be left unrealized.
Zorana Bojic, Russian bureau chief, the Beta agency
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 08, 2008
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